Egypt update
Summary: Egypt’s Palestine diplomacy, the implications of the Sudanese military victories in Khartoum, Red Sea disasters, cooperation with Turkey in arms production, the GIS-run media empire troubles, the Menendez trial, refugees, migration, and prisons.
We thank Hossam el-Hamalawy for today’s newsletter, an edited and updated version of his 3Arabawy Egypt Security Sector Report. Hossam is a journalist and scholar-activist, currently based in Germany. He was involved in the Egyptian labour movement and was one of the organisers of the 2011 revolution. Follow his writings on Substack and X.
Palestine
- News reports on Egypt that get published in al-Araby al-Jadeed and Arabi21 have zero credibility and should be double-checked. I don’t cite or comment on these reports, because it’s a complete waste of my time.
- The State Information Service repeated Egypt’s “firm rejection” of claims suggesting that its stance on the displacement of Palestinians is linked to economic aid, in a statement on Monday.
- The Israeli army said Tuesday it foiled an attempt to smuggle 50 kilograms of drugs into Israel from Egypt earlier today, using a drone. Two days later, a drone carrying 10 kilograms of drugs and another carrying weapons were also downed.
- A small protest in solidarity with Gaza was held in front of the Journalists Syndicate on Wednesday.
- The State Information Service condemned on Wednesday “claims circulated by some news websites and social media platforms alleging that Egypt transported military aid to Israel,” in reference to the retracted report by the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights.
- Sisi again tried to capitalise on the regional turmoil to shore up domestic support for his regime. On Wednesday, he repeated his calls for the public to unite behind his leadership.
- Haaretz reported on Wednesday:
Egypt itself is also growing increasingly frustrated with Israel. The government in Cairo suspects that Netanyahu and his confidant Ron Dermer are planning to push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza into Egyptian territory, with the backing of the Trump administration.
- In a move clearly signalling Cairo’s frustrations with Hamas, the General Intelligence Service (GIS)-run al-Qahera News publicised on Wednesday a call for Friday protests against Hamas in southern Gaza.
- Egypt has received positive indications from Israel over a new ceasefire proposal that would include a transitional phase, security sources told Reuters on Thursday. The proposal suggests Hamas release five Israeli hostages each week, sources said. An Egyptian security delegation headed to Qatar on the same day for negotiations.
- Netanyahu has directed the Mossad to identify countries that would be willing to take in large numbers of displaced Palestinians from Gaza, Axios reported on Friday. Talks have already taken place with Somalia and South Sudan, as well as other countries, including Indonesia, according to the two Israeli officials and a former US official.
- In an interview with al-Ahram al-Arabi on Friday, FM Badr Abdelatty announced that consensus had been reached on the members of the non-partisan committee set to oversee the administration of Gaza during a six-month transitional period.
- Egyptian and Qatari delegations have been engaging with multiple parties to finalise a prisoner exchange deal and a 50-day ceasefire, aiming to reach an agreement before Eid al-Fitr and Passover, Asharq reported Saturday. Hamas has reportedly accepted an Egyptian proposal to release five hostages, including the American-Israeli Edan Alexander, in exchange for a return to the initial ceasefire conditions and the entry of humanitarian aid. The Israeli government responded with a counter-proposal, though the terms remain undisclosed.
- The state and the security services mobilised “protests” following the Eid prayers early today, in Cairo and several provinces, against the displacement of the Palestinians and in support of Sisi.
SAF Gains in Khartoum: Implications for Cairo
Egypt views the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)’s advances in Khartoum as a potential boost to stability on its southern border, helping to contain spillover threats. The Sudan conflict had raised Cairo’s alarm that chaos would enable arms smuggling and threat actors to infiltrate Egypt’s territory. By reasserting control, the SAF can work with Egypt to secure border areas, curb illicit weapons flows, and prevent hostile groups from gaining a foothold next door.
Recent SAF victories in Khartoum strengthen Egypt’s hand in Sudan while undercutting rival regional influence. Cairo has long backed Sudan’s military as the backbone of the state, reflecting its own military-centric model. This comes at the expense of powers like the UAE, which had armed and financed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to exploit Sudan’s gold and ports—plans now derailed by the RSF’s battlefield setbacks.
Likewise, the diminishing of the RSF checks the influence of its patrons (such as the UAE and Russia’s Wagner network) and brings Sudan’s alignment closer to Egypt and partners like Saudi Arabia, who favour a stable, unitary Sudan.
Stabilising Khartoum under SAF control would help revive the economic links between Egypt and Sudan, which the war has severely disrupted. The conflict paralysed trade and transit, as banking and customs in Khartoum shut down, stalling Sudanese exports (gum arabic, livestock, etc.) and halting Egyptian shipments of food and industrial goods.
Sudan is one of Egypt’s top African trading partners—a major importer of Egyptian products and supplier of agricultural commodities (including about 10% of Egypt’s meat supply)—so the fighting’s damage to commerce drove up prices and hurt businesses.
Sudan’s war has already driven a massive refugee influx into Egypt, and SAF advances in Khartoum could help stem this flow over time. Since the conflict began, more than 1.2 million Sudanese have fled into Egypt—now the largest refugee community in the country. If the SAF’s gains lead to greater security in Sudan, further exodus may be reduced.
The Red Sea
- Trump plans to demand compensation from Egypt in exchange for reopening commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea, according to leaked messages from senior US officials involved in coordinating recent airstrikes on Yemen. The messages, shared via an encrypted platform, were inadvertently revealed when Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic, was unexpectedly added to the group.
At this point, the previously silent “S M” [Stephen Miller, the White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy] joined the conversation. “As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. We also need to figure out how to enforce such a requirement. EG, if Europe doesn’t remunerate, then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.”
Cairo did not comment.
- Six people died on Thursday when a tourist submarine sank off Egypt’s Red Sea coast, state media reported Thursday, with Russia’s consulate saying 45 Russian citizens were aboard.
The area has been the site of several deadly accidents in recent years.
HAVELSAN, Kader Partner for UGV Production in Egypt
HAVELSAN, a prominent Turkish defence firm, has entered a strategic agreement with Egypt’s Kader Factory, which is affiliated with the Arab Organization for Industrialization, to produce unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) jointly.
The partnership, signed Wednesday in Cairo and attended by high-level officials, reflects a growing defence collaboration between the two countries. Under the agreement, HAVELSAN will provide technical expertise and licensing support to Kader Factory, which will handle production at its Egyptian facilities.
Air Force Ventures Further Into Business with New Urban Management Firm
The Ministry of Housing and the Air Force-run Future of Egypt Project for Sustainable Development signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a new joint-stock company, Modon, aimed at managing, maintaining, and operating urban infrastructure and facilities, the Egyptian Cabinet said in a statement on Saturday.
GIS-Controlled UMS Faces Mounting Losses Amid Media Overhaul
Egypt’s media sector is grappling with deep uncertainty following a series of government interventions and leadership changes at the GIS-controlled United Media Services (UMS).
After Sisi criticised this year’s Ramadan drama at a military-hosted iftar, the state quickly moved to impose tighter oversight on media and drama production, establishing multiple committees to align content with “authentic Egyptian identity” and “positive values.”
Meanwhile, UMS has been facing increasing financial strain, with al-Qahera News Channel—considered a heavy burden on the company’s resources—reportedly consuming nearly half of UMS’s budget while generating little to no revenue. Amid these challenges, Gulf media giants are expanding their influence, threatening Egypt’s traditional dominance in regional entertainment.
The growing financial losses at UMS, particularly at al-Qahera News Channel, highlight the challenges of sustaining the GIS-backed media conglomerate’s sprawling operations. Compounding the problem, leadership reshuffles and unclear mandates have left the organization in disarray. Industry insiders are now questioning whether the state’s new directives will lead to a revamped, centralised media structure under tighter GIS control, a fragmented private sector, or a mix of both—though any scenario appears fraught with economic and administrative obstacles.
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Robert and Nadine Menendez, with Abbas Kamel, then the director of the GIS, and his wife Azza el-Sheikh, 2021.
Menendez
The corruption trial against Nadine Menendez, the wife of Robert Menendez, commenced Monday in New York federal court over bribes of cash, gold, and a luxury car from Egyptian businessmen.
The prosecutor accused Nadine Menendez of acting as an intermediary in a scheme that involved her husband leveraging his Senate influence to benefit the Egyptian government, including securing military sales. In her opening statement, Prosecutor Lara Pomerantz told jurors that
the bribes were linked to Mr. Menendez’s efforts to steer aid and weapons to Egypt, a country “hungry” for both.
Mr. Menendez needed an intermediary who was able to “get her hands dirty,” in ways a prominent senator could not, Ms. Pomerantz said.
That go-between, she said, was Ms. Menendez, who shuttled messages and bribes among her husband, Egyptian officials and businessmen who sought help quashing criminal cases.
Robert Menendez was sentenced earlier this year to 11 years in prison for his involvement in the same bribery scandal.
Refugees in Egypt Left Without Critical Care as UNHCR Faces Funding Cuts
UNHCR announced Tuesday it has been forced to suspend crucial medical and child protection services for refugees in Egypt due to a severe funding shortfall, leaving tens of thousands, including Sudanese refugees who fled their country’s conflict, without access to life-saving treatment.
This crisis has halted surgeries, chemotherapy, and chronic disease care, with refugees now unable to afford Egypt’s national health system fees. With humanitarian funding cut by more than half, UNHCR warns that without immediate donor support, many vulnerable refugees may succumb to preventable conditions, as essential programs are at risk of further reductions.
In other related news, Egypt is preparing to host the second ministerial meeting of the Khartoum Process, a forum focused on curbing irregular migration from East Africa to Europe—through empowering local militias and repressive regimes—scheduled for 9 April 2025.
Prisons
- The Egyptian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release Oqba Hashad, an Egyptian student who has been held in prolonged pre-trial detention for nearly six years solely as punishment for his brother’s human rights activism, Amnesty International said Thursday.
- In 2024, Egyptian courts issued 509 death sentences—roughly a 12% increase from the previous year.
- Political detainees at Wadi el-Natroun 440 Prison, in Beheira province, started a hunger strike last week to protest torture at the hands of the stationed Homeland Security and Criminal Investigation officers.
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